Drive performance using data from every drive over the past three NFL seasons joins with win-loss results for your sortable enjoyment. See the quantified analytics for offense, defense and team separated out to accurately reveal team strengths and weaknesses. How did these numbers come to be? An explanation of the metric used is given in a previous post. Every drive has been included in this analysis except for drives that ended the half or game.
Does drive performance over an entire season correlate well with team record? Drive analytics from NFL seasons 2012-2014 show the “ups and downs” of performance.
| Team | '14 Off | '14 DEF | '14 TEAM | '14 rank | '14 Wins | '13 Off | '13 DEF | '13 TEAM | '13 rank | '13 Wins | '12 Off | '12 DEF | '12 TEAM | '12 rank | '12 Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 'GB' | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 1 | 12 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 19 | 8 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 7 | 11 |
| 'SEA' | 0.04 | 0.28 | 0.16 | 2 | 12 | -0.04 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 1 | 13 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 3 | 11 |
| 'DEN' | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 3 | 12 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 2 | 13 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 2 | 13 |
| 'NE' | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 4 | 12 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 11 | 12 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 1 | 12 |
| 'BAL' | -0.01 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 5 | 10 | -0.25 | 0.23 | -0.03 | 21 | 8 | -0.11 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 11 | 10 |
| 'DAL' | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 6 | 12 | -0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 14 | 8 | -0.04 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 18 | 8 |
| 'KC' | -0.06 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 7 | 9 | -0.09 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 4 | 11 | -0.28 | -0.06 | -0.19 | 31 | 2 |
| 'IND' | -0.07 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 8 | 11 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 6 | 11 | -0.13 | 0.04 | -0.05 | 20 | 11 |
| 'PHI' | -0.10 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 9 | 10 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 12 | 10 | -0.31 | 0.03 | -0.17 | 29 | 4 |
| 'PIT' | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 10 | 11 | -0.09 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 16 | 8 | -0.23 | 0.25 | -0.01 | 16 | 8 |
| 'HOU' | -0.17 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 11 | 9 | -0.30 | 0.12 | -0.10 | 25 | 2 | -0.12 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 6 | 12 |
| 'DET' | -0.17 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 12 | 11 | -0.12 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 13 | 7 | -0.22 | 0.10 | -0.11 | 27 | 4 |
| 'BUF' | -0.25 | 0.33 | 0.05 | 13 | 9 | -0.26 | 0.22 | -0.02 | 20 | 6 | -0.19 | -0.01 | -0.10 | 26 | 6 |
| 'CAR' | -0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 14 | 7 | -0.04 | 0.34 | 0.15 | 3 | 12 | -0.08 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 15 | 7 |
| 'MIA' | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 15 | 8 | -0.21 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 15 | 8 | -0.21 | 0.07 | -0.07 | 24 | 7 |
| 'ARI' | -0.18 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 16 | 11 | -0.20 | 0.32 | 0.09 | 9 | 10 | -0.45 | 0.33 | -0.09 | 25 | 5 |
| 'SF' | -0.17 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 17 | 8 | -0.15 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 10 | 12 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.16 | 4 | 11 |
| 'CIN' | -0.12 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 18 | 10 | -0.17 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 7 | 11 | -0.16 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 12 | 10 |
| 'SD' | -0.16 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 19 | 9 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 8 | 9 | -0.27 | 0.20 | -0.01 | 17 | 7 |
| 'MIN' | -0.17 | 0.11 | -0.02 | 20 | 7 | -0.14 | -0.05 | -0.12 | 28 | 5 | -0.11 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 13 | 10 |
| 'CLE' | -0.25 | 0.16 | -0.03 | 21 | 7 | -0.26 | 0.07 | -0.09 | 23 | 4 | -0.28 | 0.19 | -0.05 | 19 | 5 |
| 'NO' | 0.04 | -0.07 | -0.04 | 22 | 7 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 5 | 11 | -0.07 | -0.09 | -0.07 | 23 | 7 |
| 'NYG' | -0.13 | 0.10 | -0.05 | 23 | 6 | -0.43 | 0.23 | -0.11 | 26 | 7 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 10 | 9 |
| 'STL' | -0.24 | 0.18 | -0.05 | 24 | 6 | -0.29 | 0.17 | -0.06 | 22 | 7 | -0.27 | 0.13 | -0.06 | 22 | 7 |
| 'ATL' | -0.10 | -0.02 | -0.05 | 25 | 6 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.11 | 27 | 4 | -0.02 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 9 | 13 |
| 'CHI' | -0.20 | -0.08 | -0.13 | 26 | 5 | 0.02 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 18 | 8 | -0.19 | 0.39 | 0.14 | 5 | 10 |
| 'WSH' | -0.24 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 27 | 4 | -0.35 | 0.06 | -0.14 | 29 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 8 | 10 |
| 'NYJ' | -0.30 | 0.05 | -0.14 | 28 | 4 | -0.38 | 0.06 | -0.17 | 30 | 8 | -0.35 | 0.22 | -0.06 | 21 | 7 |
| 'JAX' | -0.36 | 0.03 | -0.18 | 29 | 3 | -0.41 | 0.03 | -0.19 | 32 | 4 | -0.37 | 0.00 | -0.22 | 32 | 2 |
| 'TEN' | -0.36 | -0.01 | -0.20 | 30 | 2 | -0.13 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 17 | 7 | -0.38 | -0.01 | -0.18 | 30 | 6 |
| 'TB' | -0.40 | -0.02 | -0.20 | 31 | 2 | -0.28 | 0.06 | -0.09 | 24 | 4 | -0.08 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 14 | 7 |
| 'OAK' | -0.45 | 0.00 | -0.24 | 32 | 3 | -0.31 | -0.02 | -0.18 | 31 | 4 | -0.21 | -0.04 | -0.14 | 28 | 4 |
Teams on the upward swing – MIA and DAL – strong performance over three years with continued improvement. Built by strength. I don’t see these teams going backwards – barring a pivotal injury.
KC also has shown great improvement over the past 2 years. Incredible that Andy Reid shows up and they go from 2 to 11 wins. Ranked very high and unfortunately the lose in the 1st round of the playoffs. Remember how they gave up 28 late to IND in the wildcard weekend. They were ranked much higher than IND but the human element remains. Teams must still learn how to close out games and “win” even if they have superior talent. I see KC as a team also on the rise. Andy Reid will get that offense back on track and in line with the defense which is their strength.
Interesting about IND and PHI. Offenses regarded as very strong and some of the best in the league. They are but this metric exposes them as offenses that are more hit-or-miss than people might know. These teams are middle of the pack on offense in this metric. Does not mean they are not “good” but shows that their drive performance is very up and down. When the ball moves, it generally goes a long way for these teams – they put it in the end zone. Perhaps this is why PHI and Chip Kelly try to run as many plays as possible. Also, PHI turned the ball over a bunch last year.
Many more insights similar to these are possible with information like this.
WSH – three years ago when they caught lightning in a bottle with RGIII, they were good on offense but not great on defense. The defense has remained in the bottom 3rd as measured by this metric. Injuries to their star on offense exposed them and they struggled. They were not built for sustained success. Having one side of the ball do all the heavy lifting is not a recipe for success in the NFL.
That is why it will be interesting to see just how far the Bills and Cardinals will come on offense this year. The numbers say they have a long way to go. BUF especially but ARI has an outside chance. They were 6-0 with Carson Palmer before his injury. If they can keep him healthy, maybe…but at 35 years old that may just be too much. What did they do this past year? They drafted an OT with their first round pick. The drafted an RB with their 3rd pick. However, even without Carson Palmer for the last 10 games of 2014, their performance as calculated by this metric was the same when Palmer played all 16 games in 2013.
In a similar situation are the Lions with great defensive success over several seasons. If their offense can turn the corner – which they have not done yet. They were headed in the right direction after the 2013 season but regressed in 2014.
What about CLE? They have a long way to come on offense but hope springs eternal in CLE with a young up-and-comer in John DeFilipo who comes over from the Raiders last year. He looks back at 3 straight years of poor offensive success in CLE under the guidance of 3 different offensive coordinators. Kyle Shanahan, Norv Turner and Brad Childress have each had a swing at the Browns offense the past three years. I know John, he’ll do well and build it right but it will take time. Something that is a valuable commodity in the NFL. The past two seasons, just under 25% of NFL head coaches has been fired each year.
I also see BAL as maintaining their strong defense and making just a few more plays on offense – especially with their QB. They should improve on their win total from last year.
Take a look at STL – three straight years of decent to good defense but pretty bad offense. At least they decided to move their QB and try something else. Give them credit for trying and we’ll see how it works out. Can they get past 7 wins this season. If their offense plays better and their defense just stays the same – they should be able to do it.